The stock market has had a significant rally in the last few weeks and some believe that this represents?a leading indicator towards a possible recovery.? The stock market has proven itself in history to be a good leading indicator (meaning, the performance of the market predicts directionally the economy over the near term), however, I believe that this is just a bear market rally.? However, I do believe we may be hitting the low points of the economy.? Unemployment is a lagging indicator and definitely continues its momentum towards 10% (which it will most likely hit in late Spring or Summer).? Housing has seemed to stop its rapid and preciptious downturn and has started to stabilize at lower levels or only move lower at much less steep intervals.? Interest rates continue to be historically lead, which helps housing significantly.? We want to put the bad economy behind us and move forward, look towards the future.? The problem is that we often times focus too much on getting out of the mess now, rather then measure the real long term effects of our decisions.? The current administration’s policies WILL bankrupt our nation and therefore we need to be responsible on the choices we make today to get us through this period.? Trading one mess today for another mess tomorrow, is not fiscally sound for our nation.
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